Nearly two years ago while watching the Indian super-hero movie (Krrish 3), I couldn't help but feel sad that Bollywood movie-makers weren't thinking big enough. I had suggested that if 100-million middle class Indians spent $1 each, a movie could garner Rs 600 crore ($100 million then) -- at that time, Krrish 3 had become the second-highest grossing Indian movie with just Rs 250 crore.
This year, Baahubali crossed Rs 500 crore in India collections, the only movie to do so.
Let's take this Rs 500 crore number. Assuming an average ticket price of Rs 100 (using a 25:75 split between multiplexes and single screen theatres), it means 50 million tickets sold. Anecdotal evidence (including my own behaviour) suggests that many people watched the movie 2-3 (or more) times. That would mean fewer than 50 million unique viewers, perhaps 30 million or so. Imagine... the most successful Indian movies have less than 3% market penetration! Even if we considered the 140 million cable/DTH (subscription TV) households as the addressable market based on affordability, we are looking at a 5% penetration.
On the other hand, in the US market, a highly successful movie like the Avengers grossed upwards of $600mn, translating into about 75 million tickets sold (at just over $8 per ticket). As such, the ticket numbers (75mn in USA vs. 50mn in India) don't look very different but given the vastly different denominators (population: 319mn vs. 1267mn), one would expect much larger numbers here.
There are probably two major reasons why Indian movies have such low penetration:
1. Content is not universally acceptable. Even in a highly fragmented market such as cinema, it is tough to believe that the most successful product appeals to just 5% of the market. Different languages spoken in India adds to the challenge. Just 45% of the population knows Hindi, thus ruling out the most popular Bollywood movies to a majority of the market.
2. Reach of cinemas is still very low. India has 9000 cinema screens, giving it a density of just 8 per a million population. On the other hand, the US has 117! Therefore, even if a good movie with universal appeal were to be made, access would still be a huge issue. Obviously, cable & satellite TV has much greater reach but far less monetization (on an average about Rs 50 crore per movie). Further, most Indian movies have also not been very creative or aggressive in the after-movie market of accessories, merchandising and digital content/games.
On the first factor, Baahubali has made an interesting beginning* by releasing Hindi, Telugu, Tamil and Malayalam versions simultaneously, thus addressing over 60% of the market. Even the theme - an Indian super-hero movie on the lines of popular mythology / historical stories - probably had wider appeal. The cast included well-known stars from the southern states; if there had been a recognized Bollywood star, I guess the Hindi version would have done much better. This could hold the formula for future, large budget Indian movies:
* Stories that can connect across cultural groups (fantasy / mythology / patriotism / kids)
* Dubbed simultaneously in all major languages (Hindi, Telugu, Tamil, Bengali, Marathi, Gujarati, Malayalam... would hit almost 75%)
* Multi-starrers with leading actors/actresses from various regions
On the second factor, it would be interesting to see if Baahubali can revive an interest (and value) of TV rights for a movie. There hasn't been much to see on the merchandising front too.
The profits from the first Baahubali should give its makers (and other producers) the confidence to push the boundaries next year. It would be exciting to see an Indian movie cross Rs 1000 crores ($150mn now) in revenues soon. There, that's the new target!
(* Other movies like Roja, Robot and Bombay were also released in multiple languages earlier. Baahubali is the only one amongst the all-time box office leaders.)