GlobalGyan Blog

In an earlier post, we looked at how network orchestrators like Uber, Zomato and Facebook see exponential increase in connections as they add more participants. There is clearly tremendous value in being a first mover and growing market share rapidly, even at the cost of reasonable business economics. Yet, we also see that none of the networks are really unique – every platform idea has spawned several other copy-cats. Most of the markets are still nascent and have a lot of room for growth, so everyone believes they have a chance at success. Moreover, given the asset-light model of network orchestrators, there are no real entry barriers for a me-too product.

This absence of competitive advantage is emphasized by the apparent lack of any platform loyalty by network participants. For instance, most customers of ride-sharing services have downloaded more than one app on their phones; likewise, many drivers have signed up to two or more networks. Availability and price seem to determine choice for both sides of the network. A similar situation of bargain-seeking can be seen in e-commerce and real-estate marketplaces.

As long as the role of the platform is to just aggregate and enable discovery of supply and demand (at no cost to either), there is limited stickiness. The next platform with a slightly lower price or transaction fee will churn traffic to its network. In an extreme but plausible scenario, why wouldn’t the network participants try to disintermediate the platforms? On several occasions, drivers of the ride-sharing networks pass along their business cards, asking to be contacted directly. What would stop the customer from saving a bunch of phone numbers for the promise of a lower price?

Essentially, how do these platforms add value beyond discovery and aggregation? Let us discuss two major sources of value and differentiation that appear to be working for the successful platforms.

Information

Every time a transaction occurs in the network, the platform gains valuable information that can be used to predict future demand / behavior. A taxi network that has analyzed demand / supply patterns can help its driver partners to locate themselves at specific locations that increase the chances of being hailed quickly. The network can ensure that all the drivers do not land up at the most obvious hotspots (e.g. airports) even as customers are waiting elsewhere. Not only does this help the drivers increase capacity utilization, but customers also benefit from faster access to rides. In fact, surge pricing reflects inefficiency in network planning (matching of demand to supply).

The principle would apply to any of the network businesses. E-retailers can plan inventory and logistics better, even as they offer valuable suggestions to customers on what else they might buy. A social network would be able to match people with other people, and people with advertisers much better.

Valuable insights about the network can create improved efficiency on the supply side, and customized access and experience on the demand side.

Risk Management

Any interaction or transaction carries an inherent risk of something going wrong. When it is done bilaterally, each party builds in safeguards to mitigate risk, thus creating inefficiency. If I were to book a cab, I would ask the driver to reach at least half an hour early because I am worried (based on previous experiences) that he would be late. It is inefficient for both of us – the taxi remains unproductive for that time and I might have to pay some waiting charges. Or we mitigate risks by purchasing from well-known sellers (brands) because they offer an assurance of quality. We could have bought a shirt directly, at a lower price, from the contract manufacturer who actually made the branded shirt.

The network platform, as a third-party intermediary, can take on the responsibility of efficiently mitigating our risk, partly through the information it collects and partly through its own due-diligence. By providing an estimated time of arrival (using location information of the driver and rider), the taxi app gives an assurance of availability. By collecting user feedback ratings, the network builds a self-correcting mechanism of quality. Through physical due-diligence (e.g. supplier verification), and standing guarantee to the fulfilment of the transaction, the platform mitigates risk for all parties involved.

Assurance of fulfilment, timeliness and quality by the platform can reduce transaction anxiety and increase stickiness amongst network participants   

There is an Uber of something for almost every industry now. Actually, there are many of them. What will differentiate a successful platform from yet another copy-cat is the ability to use information effectively and efficiently to derive meaningful insights and reduce transaction anxiety.

(This was first published at DNA on October 20, 2015.)

Everywhere you look, there’s an Uber for something nowadays, whether it is healthcare or heavy equipment. The tremendous excitement about companies termed as Network Orchestrators makes one wonder if a dramatic discovery has been in the world of business.

Platforms like Uber or Ola connect drivers with riders and takes a share of the transaction value. Zomato or Foursquare connect restaurants with customers through an exchange of information (menus, photos, reviews, etc.); as they add advertising or delivery transactions, the platforms make money through revenue share. Similarly, Facebook and Twitter connect people with other people or businesses through information; revenue is made through advertising or transactions.  

In essence, network orchestrators enable ‘buyers’ and ‘sellers’ to discover and transact with each other. Most of these companies are rather asset light and their intrinsic value is a function of the number of participants in the network. If you were the only person on Facebook, zero connections would be made. Two persons would create one connection, three persons three connections, and six connections would be possible with four persons. A network of “n” participants gives rise to (n²-n)/2 connections, i.e. the number of transactions is an exponential function of the number of participants. While traditional business models grow linearly when their customer numbers increase, networks grow exponentially when their participants increase.

However, the idea of networks is not new. They have been around for centuries. We can seem them all around us. Financial exchanges are networks that connect buyers and sellers of shares; telecom networks connect speakers with listeners; banks connect depositors and borrowers; and shopping malls connect stores with shoppers. Brokers, whether they be of real-estate, wedding, or acquisition deals, have been around for a while too. Someone jokingly said that Sage Narada from Indian mythology ran the first information network.

So, what is all the excitement about? Why is there so much hype now about network models, and more importantly, such high valuations chasing them? There are three major reasons:

First, technology – a combination of the Internet, mobility and location-tracking – is enabling unprecedented scale to the networks. A real-estate broker was constrained by her time and also the localities which she could cover; an online brokerage has no such limitations. A retail store has constraints of time, location and (physical) space; an e-commerce site has no such issues. The use of technology and automation enables each platform to potentially reach every human being who can theoretically be targeted for that product or service; consequently, value increases exponentially.

Second, networks are being discovered in industries that were not seen as “network-friendly.” For instance, the automobile business was not considered a technology business; however, Uber is playing on the emerging mindset that customers do not need cars, they need a transportation service. Most “traditional” businesses probably have network models hidden in them, the orchestrators are just creating more efficiency and customer satisfaction, thereby taking significant market share away from incumbents.

Third, many of the traditional network businesses lost sight of their core operating model somewhere along the way. Banks, for instance, became asset heavy with lots of branches, systems and people; they are no longer efficiently connecting savings and loans. Similarly, many telecom operators moved to asset based, monthly rental models from transaction led, per minute pricing. This has given an opportunity for new-age players to build more efficient networks. Lending Club, anonline marketplace for peer lending connects depositors and borrowers at a fraction of the cost of traditional banks. Internet-based telephony and messaging company, Whatsapp which rides on others’ telecom infrastructure and provides free services, has 800 million active users, more than any mobile operator in the world.

Network business models are not new; neither are they technology businesses. The most successful of them use technology to accelerate their growth, discover hidden networks in traditional industries and create highly efficient, asset-light business models. Every company can gain from network business models; they just need to know where to look.

(This was first published at DNA on October 10, 2015.)

In my earlier post, I shared how Uber, Ola and other similar service providers have the potential to disrupt the local travel market. I am a regular user of their services, as are many others with whom I engage online & offline. The benefits and potential are clear, yet some concerns persist. In particular, I worry that a western market approach to growth is being adopted by Uber/Ola. Let me explain.

In general, there are two major differences between developed markets like the US and emerging markets like India: one, weaker basic infrastructure, and two, insufficient skilled manpower. Infrastructure, in the context of Ola/Uber pertains not only to physical stuff like roads, public transit facilities, good quality taxis, etc. but also to related systems like traffic management, police and credit verification, licensing. By skills, I refer to trained drivers, customer service ethics, customer education, etc. When markets open up, like they did in the past decade in India, everyone goes after the gold rush... but, many hit the tripwires of inadequate infrastructure and skills. Telecom and financial services industries are good examples; other consumer services industries face similar risks.

Keeping the above in mind, here are a few suggestions for Ola/Uber; these are in two categories, the first are immediate fixes to improve customer experience and the second are to build sustainable businesses.

Customer Experience Fixes

1. Fix your location tracking

A typical use case... I'm in a meeting and about 10-15 minutes before it ends, I go to the Ola app and order a cab. Since the app works quite well, it's a matter of a few seconds and I get it done without much distraction. However, in a couple of minutes, the driver calls because he wants to know where exactly I am and/or where I want to go. Obviously the phone is on silent and I have no way of answering the call. He calls a few times and often, does not move from his current location till I have called back and confirmed the pick-up. 

Even if I were not in a meeting, I may not want to have that conversation... the reason I am using a mobile app is because it is easy and super quick. Why would you spoil that with the follow-up call? The driver should reach the pick-up point based on the GPS / location from the app. Many drivers have complained to me that they don't get a clear location or a route map on the app. Similarly, the driver tracking on the customer app is often delayed or inaccurate... in my experience, Uber has the best, real-time tracking, Ola is accurate but not real-time and Meru has the worst location tracking.

This tweet from Bhatnaturally summarizes the problem:

Hi @Olacabs in your 'reason for cancellation' option in the app, please add 'Driver clueless about pick up location despite GPS' as option

— bhatnaturally  (@bhatnaturally) January 15, 2015

2. Penalize errant drivers

The other day, a cab showed up as being 5 minutes away - it was less than a kilometer from my place. I ordered it and went down immediately since I was in a hurry. Ten minutes later, there was no sign of him, so I called his mobile. He answered disinterestedly and said that he was in the queue to fill CNG, so it would take him 15-20 minutes to reach. I asked him why he was showing up online if he was not able to respond to a request... he kind of murmured that that's how it was, and asked me to cancel the booking! 

In order to increase the availability of the cabs, the service providers (Ola/Uber) give them a bonus for being online for a certain time daily or weekly... I believe Uber's incentive kicks in at 12 hours per day. Therefore, many of the drivers keep their apps turned on even when they are unavailable to respond to a request. They are willing to take the chance of turning away a customer in order to add to punch in more hours. Also, some drivers refuse to show up when they realize that the destination is not very attractive to them.

Such behavior by drivers defeats the core value proposition of convenience and availability. Not all service providers capture this information (e.g. reason for canceling a confirmed booking); even those that capture it, are they taking prompt action? If a driver refuses a ride - without a legitimate reason, he should perhaps be blacklisted for the day (or more)... 

Don't let your core value proposition be diluted.

3. Set an example on the roads

Sometime ago, I was in one of the cabs going to the airport at night. The driver's mobile phone rang and he looked at the screen to check who was calling. Just at that moment, the car ahead of him braked suddenly because an auto came in its way. Since my driver's eyes had moved away from the road, his reaction was a second late and the cab hit the car in front of it. Luckily, there wasn't much damage and we moved on, but there is no doubt that accidents are waiting to happen on the road if you lose focus.

While there has been much discussion on improving security / transparency through better verification of drivers, an equally important expectation from Ola/Uber is that they would follow safe traffic practices. No mobile phone while driving, following speed limits, obeying traffic lights, using a seat belt, using turn indicators while shifting lanes / turning... these have to become standard driving practice. If Ola/Uber cannot have better driving practices than the regular taxis, autos and buses, then what's the point?

Make safe driving a standard practice. Specifically seek customer feedback about it.

Building the Business

This is where Uber / Ola will have to customize their business model for Indian (and other similar markets) context. Yes, they are aggregators / marketing agents that are connecting drivers and commuters... but that is not sufficient. They need to consider investing significant resources towards capability development, even if it means moving (slightly) away from an asset-light model. All the private equity funding need not go in discounting fares / price wars... there is no brand creation due to lower prices. I have three different apps that I check every time I need a vehicle - price is no longer the choice factor; it is availability. And if there are two different cabs available at similar times, I choose the operator whose vehicles are cleaner, drivers appear to better behaved and GPS works better. If you want the customer to consistently choose you over the others (i.e. create competitive advantage), price is not going be the primary factor. Here are a few things that could help build a brand:

1. Invest in driver training

Over the last few months I have encountered at least a hundred different drivers in Mumbai and spoken with many of them. Apart from an  induction program that many of them had attended, there was no other training mentioned. Wouldn't the drivers be able to better represent your brand if they were trained in customer service, communication, driving skills, routes & places of interest, etc.? Take the latter item, for instance. Quite a few of the drivers (in Mumbai) that I met have migrated here because of the increasing demand - their knowledge of many suburbs and roads is quite weak. As a passenger, I shouldn't be expected to guide the driver to my destination. A few times when I got distracted on the phone, I would find that we were on the wrong road or flyover... 

Customer engagement or experience in this business has three major touch points - the booking app (automated), driver and billing (automated). The only possible opportunity for differentiation is in the human, driver interface. 

2. Complement the fleet

I get a sense that the Ola/Uber encourage a wide distribution of the cabs across major locations to ensure availability; however, at the end of the day, the vehicle owner/driver will try be located at obvious demand points. Hotelling's law would suggest that there would be a concentration of cabs in some locations during peak hours and none at other locations. Imagine the customer at this other location unable to find a cab for 15 or 20 minutes - that's not the experience you want to provide. At the same time, you cannot force the drivers to go to these other locations where they may nor may not find any customer. 

Therefore, an option for Ola/Uber could be to invest in their own complementary fleet of vehicles to fill the network gaps. Of course, they have to be careful not to cannibalize business from their partners, and use their vehicles as queue busters. In addition, these vehicles could be used for training and demonstration purposes. Another idea could be to have these as high-end vehicles that are occasionally sent to frequent customers as "free upgrades" (similar to the Uber India launch strategy of using Audis and Mercs). Once the network is stable, these vehicles can be moved to other upcoming locations.

3. Think about your enablers

The other day, I was in an Ola cab and at the destination, the driver tried to end the trip. The mobile signal was probably poor, and it took a couple of minutes for the trip summary to show up (zero bill because I had enough money in the pre-paid wallet). While two minutes may not be much, it is surely an irritant if you are running late or the cab is awkwardly parked on the road. [The Uber model of compulsorily using a wallet avoids this issue.] Similarly, another driver complained - at the end of the journey - that the mobile phone or network had failed en-route and therefore, he needed to estimate the fare using Google Maps route distance.

If you want to build a sustainable business, you have to think far beyond the contours of your current business scope. What could derail you? For instance, good quality mobile data networks are critical to Uber/Ola, as they are to several other new businesses. Without a data network, the measurement, billing and payment aspect of the drive would fall apart. Without good quality / efficient cars and roads, your cost structure could take a hit. I am not suggesting that Uber/Ola should become mobile operators or auto manufacturers, but they should surely work towards building alliances & capabilities to ensure that the supporting eco-system remains vibrant and competitive. 

I am confident that many of the teething issues that Ola/Uber/Meru face would soon be overcome... local transport / conveyance in the second half of this decade will be far superior to what we have ever experienced.

Do you have any other suggestions... please feel free to share them in your comments below.

During the last three months, I have almost stopped driving for intra-city (Mumbai) travel. In particular, I don't take my car out when I am alone and traveling for work-related meetings. Being driven helps me gain that extra 30-60 minutes to prepare for a meeting or to respond to missed calls / emails after a meeting. It also helps that I can save 10-15 minutes in not having to look for some place to park. And I have email invoices that I can use for expense reimbursement or management without having to keep tab.

Yes, I have discovered the benefits of Uber and OlaCabs. 

Not only do I have a chauffeured vehicle when I need it but I often spend less than if I used my own car. With the frequent discounts and offers (thanks to private equity funding!), I can get a car on demand at about Rs 15 per kilometre... my own car costs me Rs 12 to 15 / km for fuel, it would be much more. Things can't be better!

There is obviously some sort of a break-even point here, of owning a car and hiring a driver vs. using services like Ola/Uber. Consider a typical use case: drive 25km daily to office and back, plus 20km every weekend for shopping / entertainment... that's 630km per month. Fuel cost for a mid-size car would be Rs 5-7 per km but a driver's salary at Rs 6000-8000 adds Rs 9-12 per km. Therefore, the marginal cost of using a vehicle would be at least Rs 15 per km. So, even if you own a car, and you want to be driven, unless you use it for 700-1000km every month, it would make sense to use a Uber/Ola like service.

I have not done the supply-side economics yet... from my conversations with the car drivers, it appears that they (the vehicle owners) are making good money. In fact, many of them are buying new cars so that they can add to their Ola/Uber fleet. But I have a sense that they are currently being subsidized by the service providers (trip bonus, being online for 12 hours bonus, etc.) I wonder if this is sustainable. 

Some more thoughts on the disruption that we are observing in the transportation / automobile industry (note, I am not referring to a "taxi service" market here).

Behaviour Shift

The value of Uber or Ola is not just that they are taking share away from traditional metered taxis but also expanding the market. They are essentially getting more people to use a "taxi service". If you had a car, you were earlier not a likely customer for the taxi market. But as I (anecdotally) demonstrated above - and I hear many of my colleagues/friends reinforce the point - non-users are being brought into the "taxi market". The initial discounts helped - for a while I was using Ola & Uber at prices lower than the regular yellow cabs. Now, prices have gone up, yet I am so used to the convenience that I am willing to pay even Rs 20 per km for the service. 

Also, while auto manufacturers need not worry as yet about lost sales, I would wager that, in metro markets which are also seeing improvement in public transit facilities, some impact would be felt soon.

They two key drivers (pun unintended) for the growth of Ola/Uber are:

1. Convenience - The ease of service discovery, purchase and consumption is a clear draw. The mobile apps are extremely easy to use and the payment mechanisms (using a pre-paid wallet) are highly convenient. Being able to track your driver and ride makes the process transparent. The invoices sent to your email are detailed and efficient. 

2. Availability - The tip-off point for the new taxi services is their ready availability. A lot of local travel (except perhaps airport drops) is unplanned and subject to the vagaries of moving schedules. Earlier, the service providers required you to book a taxi at least an hour in advance and that restricted their appeal. Uber entered the Indian market with immediate availability and its competitors have followed suit. As the popularity of these services grows, more drivers are signing up, consequently, availability improves and therefore, more customers feel encouraged to use the service. There is a clear network effect at play here. 

There is another important factor at play here which relates to the business model of network aggregation. Uber/Ola are intermediaries that are enabling vehicle owners/drivers and commuters to discover and transact with each other. Their asset-light model has the ability to scale very fast (riding on others' capital investments); their focus remains on innovation and marketing.

Ben Thompson has this wonderful post at Stratecherry where he explains density and network effect as liquidity of the car service... he also uses this to describe why it might be a winner take all market. I am not sure if the Indian cities have reached that stage of maturity -- as long as there is scope for significant growth, I can see the opportunity for at least 2-3 players. My dipstick analysis reveals that most drivers are today exclusively working for a provider, except in the Prime (SUV/Innova) category where I have found a few drivers two-timing. Further, given the lack of existing (quality) infrastructure, Uber and others would need to (directly or indirectly) invest in adding more vehicles and drivers on the streets, thus preventing the creation of a virtual monopoly.

(By the way, these three factors -- Ease of Use, Density and Network Aggregation -- are applicable to many other industries. Financial services sector could surely learn a thing or two from them... given that the banking business is nothing but intermediating between savers / investors and borrowers / investees. The recent success of Lending Club provides an indication of the possible unraveling of the traditional banking models. It would be worthwhile thinking about other blue oceans that can be created by adopting these three factors.)

Even as Ola, Uber, Taxiforsure and others bring in huge investments in this space, they have a long way to go. They must not repeat the mistakes that many others have made in India before... chasing growth without creating infrastructure and skill foundations. In the follow-up post, I will share a few suggestions for Ola/Uber to improve customer experience and to build sustainable businesses.