Freedom of Expression - additional thoughts

Following my earlier post on FoE, one question that remained unresolved in my mind: does FoE automatically granted everyone the freedom to insult. Rajeet raised a similar issue in his comments on that post. Here I try to (somewhat) address that question and also share some more ideas and information that I have come across.

It appears that the United States has taken an extreme position on free speech, through its interpretation of the First Amendment that there shall be no law abridging the freedom of speech. The US Supreme Court, in a landmark case in 1969, went so far as to permitting even "hate speech" as protected by Constitution unless it presented the possibility of "imminent lawless action." This formulation, referred to also as the Brandenburg test, looks for "imminence, intent and likelihood" of the speech leading to violence or violation of laws.

Another recent US Supreme Court judgement in Snyder vs. Phelps reaffirmed this "extreme" view on protecting speech, thereby enabling the Westboro Baptist Church to make offensive statements at a soldier's funeral... as long as it was speech in public interest, made at a public location. Essentially, as long as a particular speech is not personal in nature nor delivered to a "captive audience," the state has no right to prohibit it, subject to the Brandenburg test. In an earlier case, Cohen vs. California, the USSC struck down a law that tried to regulate content of speech, whereas the state may be within its right to determine conduct (timing, location, etc.) Even with regards to restrictions on conduct, the USSC had issues with a law that was "vague" and did not specify what citizens could do or not. They said that the words "offensive conduct" alone cannot "be said sufficiently to inform the ordinary person that distinctions between certain locations are thereby created." Justice John Marshall Harlan II famously wrote, in the context of a four-letter expletive in this case, that "one man's vulgarity is another's lyric."

Therefore, my understanding of the US position is that insulting a religion is permitted under FoE because it is a matter of public interest, but insulting someone personally - the fighting words doctrine - would not be protected speech.

So, should you punch someone in the face because he/she insulted you or your family? Clearly Pope Francis believes, yes, in spite of what Jesus suggested about turning the other cheek. Ironically (because of the context of the statement), another spiritual leader, Swami Vivekananda also expressed similar sentiments about what he would do in such a situation. Beyond the rhetoric, the legal position appears to be quite clear: a violent reaction to a verbal insult will put you on the wrong side of the law. So while one would have legal recourse against verbal abuse, particularly if it is threatening or defamatory in nature, giving it back in the same vein might be a more prudent response, if at all. The issue with laws that start encroaching on the verbal insult / abuse territory is that politicians / police officers / lawyers won't know when and where to stop. In fact, faced with (often silly) distorted implementations of the law against insulting, England recently removed the restrictions on using insulting language (unless it is specifically personal) in its Public Order Act.


Given how the US laws treat free speech, it is quite clear that freedom of expression is severely, and vaguely, restricted in India, because of the First Amendment (how ironic!) to its Constitution.

Just take another recent issue around the Censor Board... while its official name is the Central Board for Film Certification, it actually acts as a guardian of morality and a state-enabled filter for speech. Isn't it strange that a nation of such complexity, diversity and size has allowed a few people, sometimes with no appropriate qualification, to determine what movie content is officially available to be watched. Unfortunately, not only has it been taken for granted that censorship will exist, the new chief of CBFC wants to extend this policing to other forms of content. Incidentally, the US does not actually have a censor board equivalent... the closest they have is the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), which is a private trade body and administers the MPAA Ratings that are voluntary for film-makers to use.


Finally (for this post), I want to share this post by Nitin Pai which provides great clarity on the liberal nationalist position on free speech. Here's a portion that I found very interesting:

How much merit is there to the movement for a complete libertarian state where speech is truly free? Is it even possible?

There cannot be a complete libertarian state, as that is an oxymoron. A state involves a social contract where some liberties are traded away for the privilege of enjoying the rest of them. So we give up the right to violence to the state, so that we may enjoy the right to life, property, free speech and so on. 

A figure of merit, therefore, is how few of our liberties do we need to give up in order to enjoy the rest. North Koreans give up 90% of their liberties to enjoy the remaining 10%. North Americans give up 10% of their liberties to enjoy the 90%. I think India should aim to move towards the North American standard, rather than the North Korean standard.


As usual, I am learning more on this topic... please feel free to share your views and suggestions.

Freedom of Expression - My observations

Freedom of Expression is being feverishly discussed and debated around the world, particularly in the context of the gruesome terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo. In India, the discussion has taken the usual political connotations... and in all this freedom of expression, so much is being said that very little is being heard and understood. 

Here are some observations from my side... I am sharing these partly to clarify my own thoughts and partly in the hope that they will help some others in developing their point of view.

1. India does not really have FoE

While there is a lot of discussion around various people's tolerance levels for expression, FoE is not primarily about how each of us react to others' expression. FoE is foremost about how the state (government) treats expression by its citizens. Does it permit, nay encourage, individuals to express what they have in their minds? It appears that most countries / governments accept some form of restrictions on free speech, particularly around speech that harms or offends others. 

The issue in India is that the caveats on free speech give enough leeway to the government to act in a highly subjective manner:

These rights are limited so as not to affect:

  • The integrity of India
  • The security of the State
  • Friendly relations with foreign States
  • Public order
  • Decency or morality
  • Contempt of court
  • Defamation or incitement to an offence
If there is one thing that must be debated, it is the First Amendment to the Constitution of India that added "reasonable restriction on freedom of speech" -- it has led to additions in the Indian Penal Code that ensure that true freedom of speech does not exist in India. Anything meaningful that you say will offend someone else and therefore, can give rise to a criminal offense.

The first amendment was brought about, soon after the founding fathers wrote the Constitution, because the then government was unable to silence a critical magazine. All subsequent governments have just enjoyed this cover without questioning it.

2. FoE is not a one-way street

It is amusing that most of us latch on to the FoE bandwagon when it suits us. If we believe in the absoluteness of this freedom, then we must be ready for its consequences. As I mentioned above, any meaningful opinion could offend somebody or the other. If I want to be able to express my views, I should be prepared that others may also say things that I might dislike. By the way, accepting FoE does not mean I have to agree with the content of what others say... this implies that I should be prepared for others to criticize me. 

Content creators like authors, painters, movie-makers, etc. seek absolute freedom to say what they want, however, they should then be ready to accept criticism, in whatever (legal) form it takes. If you are not ready to accept people protesting your content, calling you names or filing legal cases against you (not difficult, given point 1 above), then you should not exercise your freedom of expression. Strangely, journalists who believe in the God-given right to ask questions of anyone on any topic are the first to block others' freedom in asking questions or commenting on them. 

3. FoE is just an excuse 

Many folks asked if Charlie Hebdo should not have been so irreverent about Islam, particularly when they were aware of the violence threats. Why would you go and provoke somebody who has a different thought process / cultural background? 

To this, I will paraphrase something that I wrote during a Facebook discussion on the topic:

Take the "let's not provoke them since they don't like it" argument further ... those who are aggressive and violent will win; those who fear such violence will be silenced. Don't know how this will ever end well. 

Further, I don't think the jihadis really care about the cartoons or the "western" notion of FoE. They probably don't understand religion (else why would they kill other Muslims!?)... I think they just want to provoke everyone else into a "war"... Everytime something like this happens, a few people on the other side get pushed to an extreme, will call all Muslims names or make it tough for them; this provokes some of the moderate Muslims into extremism and creates a fresh source of recruits for the jihadis. It's just a power game... God / faith is just a potent fig-leaf. 

But the problem with becoming silent / withdrawing expression is that it doesn't matter, no? If the goal is to find some excuse for provocation, then it will be found, how much ever accommodating you are. If somebody wants to be aggrieved, they can bring anything up from anywhere / anytime.
What is shocking is the equivalence that is being drawn between counter-expression and violence as a counter to expression. 

In fact, saying shit in response to what you say is actually the essence of freedom of speech. Killing someone or punching them on the face is not.

However, Pope Francis has now said that some form of violence (but not murder) would be justified for verbal offense. The problem is where do you draw the line? What offense is punishable by violence? And what severity of violence (short of murder) is acceptable? Of course, as long as governments are active participants in the curbs on FoE (see India example above, Saudi example in the Guardian link, etc.)


Absolute freedom of expression can perhaps be an ideal that we aspire for... as long as the world has power asymmetries and cultural differences - forever, I guess, individuals will need to exercise prudence in expression and governments will impose restrictions on FoE. What we should fight for is reduction in such restrictions and greater social & legal protection for those who exercise FoE.

Unraveling of the India Story - in just 5 years

Today's Swaminomics highlights the loss of India's competitiveness as a nation: 

GDP growth has halved to 4.5%. India has become uncompetitive in several ways. Worse, the Indian political class has stopped even trying to compete globally. It focuses on subsidies, reservations and special measures for sundry vote banks, regardless of the implications for competitiveness.

Why is this so important? Because, there are multiple options for resources (capital and labour) to be invested. Whether it is foreign investment or Indian money, if it becomes too difficult or unattractive to operate in India, poof, many other countries are waiting for that money. Similarly, the best talent will move in and out of markets. Just five years ago, I was hoping (confidently) that 30 Indian companies would be able to fulfill late Dr. Prahlad's vision of becoming part of the Fortune 100 by 2022. I wrote:

India will be the third largest economy by 2022 and will contribute nearly a billion people to the world's workforce. The market should provide adequate scale to create globally leading business models.

An additional challenge for India is to consolidate what are typically highly fragmented and unorganised markets. Leadership in the home market is essential to achieve the scale that the Indian market can provide.

Several markets, including the US and the UK, are facing an economic slowdown. Consequently, several multinational companies are seeking to get into India and other emerging markets, making these markets more competitive. We have to defend the home turf not by creating entry barriers, but by directly competing with global players.

We have already lost a third of the fifteen years, and only one company (IOC, Govt. PSU) has managed to enter the Fortune 100 (2013) and Reliance Industries is close-by at #107. Looking ahead, it appears difficult that another 28 Indian companies will be able to make that shift. As Mr. Aiyar concludes,

Neither the courts, NGOs nor the politicians seem to care. A profusion of new rules and regulations are constantly churned out without any cost-benefit exercise to judge the impact on competitiveness. The latest Doing Business 2013 report of the World Bank says India has slipped from 131st to 134th position in ease of doing business. It stands 177th in ease of starting a business, 183rd in getting a construction permit; and 186th in enforcing contracts. Yet this damning expose of our uncompetitiveness produces no political will to change. We have a deep structural problem that is not even recognized, let alone redressed. Will India have to go bust again to concentrate the minds of politicians?

Andhra Pradesh: The Dis-Integration Problem

During my corporate career, mergers / acquisitions was an area of focus and interest. Even my first major initiative in the academic world was the IIMA course on Cross-border M&A and Integration. Whether it was in the practical realm or the "theoretical" world, it was clear that the concept of post-merger integration was critical to the success of an acquisition.

One of the best practices in this space is that you plan for integration almost at the same time as you start evaluating the acquisition deal. There are two major reasons: integration is tough and you need all the time you can to plan for it; but more importantly, how you intend to integrate has major implications for the value as well as structuring of the deal. Many deals which may be attractive on a stand-alone basis, fall apart when you consider all the implications of what needs to happen post-deal. Or unattractive deals become viable with the addition of integration benefits or synergies.

Just as the above concept is valid in the case of a merger, so is it if you intend to de-merge a business / entity. Splitting a part from the whole comes with a similar set of issues around people, infrastructure, laws / regulations, etc. You can articulate an intention to de-merge (or merge) but a decision should only be taken after the separation (or integration) issues are considered and resolved.

Imagine if this is the complexity in corporate M&A which might involve thousands of people, what it would take when millions are party to such restructuring actions. This theory (or gyan) is extremely relevant to the way the Andhra Pradesh / Telangana issue has been handled by the Indian government. Like many other decisions, the govt seems to have adopted the principle of Act (announce) Now; Think (analyse) Later.

(Disclaimer: I am not close enough to the situation to comment on the historical and current reasons for the proposed split. Nor do I have any direct stakes in whatever the outcome might be. I was born in Andhra Pradesh and spent a few childhood years there. I have family and friends in multiple cities in AP.)

There are several (recent) instances of new states being created for mostly economic and administrative reasons. I have read some articles on the historical promises made to people of the Telangana region which successive governments have failed to fulfil. So it is safe to say that there are compelling reasons to consider the creation of Telangana state.

But, before announcing the decision as fait accompli, the Government should have identified and listed the major "dis-integration" issues. A process of consultation with key stakeholders (MLAs, MPs, media, opinion influencers, etc.) from all regions would have led to some acceptable alternatives for all key issues. The cost - benefit of these 'solutions' would then have informed us if the original decision was still worth pursuing.

It appears that the Srikrishna Committee did some parts of what has just been suggested. Unfortunately, the govt seems to have either completely ignored the output of that work or failed to publicly share what its resultant dis-integration plan was. The recent setting up of a GoM without any representation from the "affected parties" re-affirms the govt's disdain towards local opinions.

In my view, the people of Seemandhra who are agitating for a united Andhra really don't care about a "united" state. What they care about is the future of their jobs / investments in Hyderabad. What they want to know is that water would be available to the downstream regions. What they want comfort is on the centre's economic support to their state. Similarly, people from Telangana should be concerned about the availability of electricity for their state. They should be eager to know the economic development plan / support for areas beyond Hyderabad. These are issues that a dis-integration plan should have covered. These are issues that can be solved with some give & take, if negotiated in an atmosphere of trust.

It is still not too late. For once, can the central govt give up its unilateral behaviour and embark on a conciliatory process of de-merger? If not the PM, maybe the putative future PM can embrace the statesmanly role that is required at this time. Else, what should have been a clean de-merger will take on the ugly tones of partition.

Why I am Reluctant to Support Anna Hazare Today.

(Adapted from a Facebook note that I posted on August 19, 2011)

With millions of Indians supporting Anna Hazare (as per media or FB, at least), is it so difficult for IAC to find one MP who will introduce their version of the Lokpal bill in Parliament and then get a majority of the MPs to vote in favour?

If they can, they should pursue that path. If they cannot, they should continue to protest / debate till they can convince enough MPs. Threatening the Government with deadlines & fasts unto death is excessive and arbitrary. This Government may be discredited, but the institutions of Parliament & Executive needn't be. Also, if the Government / politicians are as bad as we imagine they are, do we think that getting them to agree to the JLP bill will end corruption? If they have delayed the Lokpal for so many years, they can delay effective implementation for a long time to come.

There is no denying that most Indians are fed up of corruption; they are also fed up with lethargy in decision making and reforms. India, in the 21st century, has failed to keep pace with our aspirations and expectations. The middle class that has tasted the benefits of superior economic growth and competitive choice has no patience for poor infrastructure or galloping inflation. This angst requires solutions; it requires leadership. Unfortunately, not one amongst the political class has stood up to be counted. The opposition, in particular, failed miserably to capitalize on a wonderful opportunity to grab the initiative. 

What you have is a motley crowd of activists, NGOs, godmen and others that have captured popular imagination. Ok, so they'll probably win this round. What happens next? We are back to the same old choices. You know what I'd love to see: Anna Hazare and his team should convert IAC into a political party, demand mid-term elections and seek to come to power, if not now, perhaps by 2014. Then, I might vote for IAC - if I agree with their politics and economics. 

A democracy requires politicians; whether they are good ones or bad ones is our choice.

(Disclosure: I disagree that Jan Lokpal Bill is the solution to the corruption problem that we are facing. I strongly believe that reducing government and related controls is the 'cure' to big ticket corruption that has characterized the last decade. For the daily corruption that all of us face, I think that this suggestion from Kaushik Basu is seriously worth evaluating.)

 

PS. I had an interesting discussion with my friend Mohan Kannegal in the comments of my FB note; offered without any further comment.

About Value Systems and Economic Power

Extract from Thomas Friedman's Op-Ed in New York Times: We're No. 1(1)!
Who will tell the people? China and India have been catching up to America not only via cheap labor and currencies. They are catching us because they now have free markets like we do, education like we do, access to capital and technology like we do, but, most importantly, values like our Greatest Generation had. That is, a willingness to postpone gratification, invest for the future, work harder than the next guy and hold their kids to the highest expectations.

 

In a flat world where everyone has access to everything, values matter more than ever. Right now the Hindus and Confucians have more Protestant ethics than we do, and as long as that is the case we’ll be No. 11!

 

I liked this article that seeks to distinguish the USA of the early 20th century and now, and how India and China, demonstrating the same great values that the earlier USA had, are emerging as major threats to US economic dominance. Thomas Friedman has always been brutally honest with his opinions. Some may disagree with his conclusions (or the approach with which he arrives at them), but there is no denying that Mr. Friedman has admirably managed to simplify and put in context complex macro-economic shifts that we are all part of.

 

The India that he briefly describes in the above op-ed is the India that I have generally known; the India in which most of us grew up in; the India that thankfully still exists in many small towns and villages.

A common scene in most towns of India - amidst the chaos, institutes of English and Computer education stand out. 

My fear is that India is changing fast. Instant wealth / success and gratification are now more sought after than the rigour of education and hard-work. What was earlier perhaps limited to the glitz capital, Mumbai is now spreading wide across the country, thanks to televised shows and new media.

Will a Times of India op-ed in 2050 lament the loss of Indian values? Maybe these are the cycles of life, the ups and downs in the fortunes of various nations. Or can a nation's leaders and thinkers steer a different course? Governance in India, in the current times, does not give such confidence. We have many strategists; we are missing the leaders. 

Let Neutrality not lead to Mediocrity

Recently, Thomas K Thomas of Hindu Business Line wrote an article regarding the Net Neutrality issue that is being debated in several countries and was introduced into the Broadband debate in India by Google. While TKT was kind enough to quote my views, there's only so much one can express in a quote. Therefore, this post to elaborate on the quote:

But Indian telecom operators are not in favour of any such regulation.  Srinivasa Addepalli, Senior Vice-President, Corporate Strategy, Tata Communication, says that more than it being a question of principles it is a commercial issue. “It is fair that consumers should have unrestricted access to the Internet. It is also a fact that telecom operators are investing billions of dollars in creating infrastructure. The Internet is at the core of private enterprise today; network operators, like the content/service providers, should be allowed to develop their commercial models without additional regulatory constraints,” Addeppali says.
There was a twist in the Net Neutrality debate in the US with Google and Verizon announcing a joint proposal and with AT&T jumping into the fray with its support of said proposal (or at least one key element of the proposal). Proponents of an open Internet accused Google of a sell-out and Google responded with an analysis of myths and facts related to the proposal. (By the way, I liked this reasonably objective teardown of the Google-Verizon proposal).

Whatever the outcome of the current round of debate on Net Neutrality proposals, I guess there are some key issues that one needs to consider here.

Is the Internet a public good or a private enterprise?
What might have started out in defence and academic circles, is now the primary platform for knowledge, collaboration, commerce, entertainment, and more. On one hand you have the largest encyclopedia in the world that is user-managed and runs on donations, and on the other you also have the most valuable brand in the world, both of which owe their existence to the Internet. The late Dewang Mehta of Nasscom once famously included Internet bandwidth as a fundamental right of all (Indian) citizens and rightly so. But it is not just information or governance that the Internet provides us now and nor is the Internet "free". Content providers and commercial enterprises are free however, to charge their customers (or not) for access to their services as they deem fit. There is no regulation that determines how much a song download should cost or what the pricing of a hosting plan should be. You can sign up for a free, 'lite' version or upgrade to a pricey, 'premium' version. It's a competitive market out there, and a reasonably free market.

Is Internet Access a monopoly or a scarce resource?
In the early days of telecom (30 yrs back in developed markets, 5-15 yrs back in several emerging markets), customers had no choice, whether it was voice services or data connectivity. Regulators were introduced in most of these markets to break incumbent monopolies and encourage competition. Even until a few years ago, customers had very few choices for broadband connectivity, one or two service providers at most in any market. But that has changed. Wireless broadband access has emerged as a reasonable alternative to wireline, particularly in developing markets that have had very poor wireline in any case. Most markets have at least three such providers; extreme cases like India have 6-7 (and growing) wireless operators. Of course, these broadband networks (both wireline and wireless) have failed to keep pace with the exponential growth in Internet traffic demand but that does not reflect scarcity or monopoly behaviour. 

Regulators, I believe, should aim to make themselves redundant. That can only happen by encouraging competition, not just in terms of numbers of players, but also ensuring that each of the players has the requisite resources to be an effective competitor. Regulations should define the minimum acceptable performance levels, for customers and competitors; beyond that, effective competition should take care of creating sufficient customer choice.

Broadband Networks: No longer commodity utilities
For long, telecom networks have been called the pipes, equating them with other utilities like water pipelines and electric wires. Broadband networks, as critical to human existence now as the aforementioned utilities, have features that set them apart from the other pipes. For one, as mentioned earlier, they are no longer primarily provided by local or national government bodies and are not monopolies. In addition, the "content" that flows through them is also varied, competitive and unregulated (unlike water or electricity), The highway example is an interesting one, with several similar characteristics to the broadband network. As one of the industry experts in TKT's article says:

It's like any toll road in the country where every type of vehicle gets to use the expressway but the toll charges vary depending on the type of vehicle.

Everyone can use the roads to travel as they please, however, there are several rules that govern how traffic flows on the roads. There are certain roads (highways or expressways) that place limitations on who (or what type of vehicles) enter the road and charge them in a differential manner. Traffic on these roads is regulated in different ways; certain types of vehicles get priority to use fast lanes and some have to stick to the slower ones. On some roads, the authorities may mandate some capacity to be reserved for public transport by creating special bus or taxi lanes, even if it slows down the rest of the traffic. Finally, in specific circumstances, private roads can be built and the owners determine what they are used for and how. What do we gather from this:

A) Rules of what is allowed and what the charges are should be clear to the users (and to the regulators)

B) Differential treatment to users is permitted. In the light of (A), users can choose what they prefer. (By the way, roads are a near monopoly or maybe duopolies; telecom networks, we have established earlier, are more competitive than roads)

C) Certain capacity of the 'public' infrastructure can be reserved or set aside for critical usage or public interest. 

D) Customers can, in certain circumstances, negotiate and build private infrastructure and use it the way they want.

As a Broadband customer, I would be willing to pay a premium for a network that understood my priority applications and provided a superior performance for such core services, even at the expense of other stuff. For instance, I would surely like to access my enterprise applications (Intranet, Mail, etc.) much faster / better than say, a YouTube video. A doctor providing remote medical assistance would surely want her tele-medicine application to not be choked mid-way through the procedure. On the other hand, a movie junkie (perhaps the doctor, on vacation) would want nothing more than super-fast download of the latest iTunes movie (in HD). Should we let this be left to fate (or best effort, in Internet / telecom parlance)? I say, No. Internet service providers need to make their networks more capable, to discriminate intelligently and individually across different types of content / applications. In a world where our lives are going to revolve around the cloud, networks have to become more than dumb pipes. Intelligent networks will create more value to the customers as well as the content providers. 

Maybe most customers do not want such intelligence. Maybe most content providers do not care about it. But for the few that want the choice, let regulation not take it away and relegate them, in the name of neutrality, to an "average" experience.

I welcome your comments and feedback, particularly because the "Net Neutrality" debate is still not defined well enough in developing markets.

2009: Sad Year for Indian Telecom; 2010: Unlikely to be better

I spent the entire Oh-Ohs (00's) decade working on telecom. NTP '99 heralded the real opening up of the Indian telecom sector and every spare hand was diverted to telecom... and boy, has it been an exciting ride! More than 500million subscribers were added during this period; we have seen tariffs hit all-time lows; 8 new submarine cables connected India to the rest of the world... the achievements are endless to recount here.

However, I am saddened by the manner this decade ended. 2009 has to count as the year that promised so much but delivered almost nothing. The most talked about disappointment, of course, was the postponement of the 3G & BWA spectrum auctions. What is more disconcerting was that major decisions that would have created true customer choice - Number Portability, MVNO and Internet Telephony - were put off, on some pretext or the other. Even the one decision (this year) on Calling Cards could not be implemented because the terms and procedures are yet to be finalized.


Most people are happy about the entry of new (mobile) operators and consequent reduction in tariffs. I am not so sure, though. Adding new (facilities-based) players to a reasonably crowded market is not necessarily in the best interest of the industry or the customers. While it does result in some short-term pricing benefits, the common resource used by all of them is scarce spectrum -- the more fragmented it gets, poorer the quality of service. So while we have so-called lowest tariffs, we also have poor service levels. Instead, the Government had the opportunity to introduce new forms of competition (& customer choice) through MVNO and Internet Telephony, but dragged its feet on those decisions.

Telecom policy-making was at its worst this year, with no clarity on who was responsible and in what direction we were headed. What we needed was an NTP 2009; what we got was EGoM meetings and TRAI consultation papers.


2009 saw Bharti losing out an opportunity to become a global leader in the mobile business; in fact, none of the Indian companies could capitalize on the recession (& low valuations) in developed markets to make any large, bold moves/acquisitions. Intense tariff pressures in the domestic market dented their valuations - most analysts reacted with a Sell on the Indian telecom sector, probably for the first time in the last 5-8 years.


Will 2010 be different? I do not see much cause for cheer: the fundamental problem around policy-making is not likely to go away in a hurry. 3G & BWA auctions might happen in early 2010 (only because the Government is counting on the auction money in this financial year!), but networks/services would be available only towards the end of the year, in a limited manner. The camps on both sides of MNP, MVNO and Internet Telephony are strong and therefore, I expect status quo will prevail - for all practical purposes.


It will feel good to be proven wrong.

Politics of States. State of Politics.

So the Government has finally agreed to the formation of Telangana state. Rather, it was forced into submission by a politician who decided to sacrifice his life for the cause.

Does it make sense to have smaller states, maybe city states? Ramesh Srivats has written a very interesting piece and I have commented, largely in agreement.

But the sad part about the decision yesterday was the process that led to it. As ad-hoc and unilateral as ever.

One numbers politician threatens to commit suicide. Everyone watches, waiting to call his bluff. No way, he says, and reaches the edge of the cliff. Centre gulps. High Command weighs political consequences and blinks. Both of them live to fight another day. So this is what democracy is about. 

Of course, the alternative is not a pretty picture too. Creation of a Committee or a Commission, discussing the report a decade later in Parliament, discrediting the people involved, forming a Parliamentary Committee or better still a Joint Parliamentary Committee, discussing the report a couple of years later, discrediting the people involved...... merry go round.

I think I like the suicide err fast unto death approach. Decisions can be taken, either ways, in 12-15 days. Very efficient.

So, if you want your Bangalore city state or Mumbai state, form a party, find a leader who is willing to commit suicide, and attack!

10 years after NTP 99

As I drive on the highway between Bangalore and Mysore two things strike me. I have not lost voice and data connectivity for even a minute since I left Bangalore airport. And every few minutes I can notice a hoarding, banner or display of one or the other telecom brand. In a country where it can take twenty years to build a bridge, the development in the telecom sector is tremendous. Yes, there are still many things that are not correct and the future maybe uncertain but the change it has created - at the grassroots level - should not be under-estimated. 300 million people (at least) are connected in a way they have never been in this country. The freedom movement is the only other thing that comes to mind. Critical observers will say that this happened in spite of the Government, and they would probably be almost correct. The only credit that I would give is for NTP 99 which really opened up the market; that was the first and last pro-active and coordinated policy work.

It is tempting to say that the next decade will be more exciting than the previous one. I really hope that it's true, for the sake of the 800 million others that are waiting to be connected.