Cellular Call Drops: Nuisance or Symptom of a Larger Problem?

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has recently released a consultation paper (pdf) on how customers should be compensated for cellular call drops. It is indeed a bit embarrassing for the Indian telecom industry that this has become such a major public interest issue. Customer experience on most mobile networks has worsened considerably in the recent past. Not only do the dropped calls cause tremendous inconvenience and loss of business productivity, they are also a financial burden to the customers.

It was not always like this. Indeed, our nation has to be proud of this rapid growth, from almost nothing in 2000 to almost a billion subscriptions in 2015. In just two decades, mobile telephony has become inseparable from every person’s daily life. What was once conceived as a luxury at price-points affordable only to very few people is now ubiquitous; today, more Indians have access to a cellular network (95% population) than they have to a utility like electricity (79%). 

Underlying this success story, however, is the unsavoury reality of an industry that has been plagued by cartelization, political scams and regulatory uncertainty. What should have been a sunrise sector stands as a shining example of crony capitalism, particularly in the past decade. Even though it appears that the Indian telecom industry is highly competitive, the truth is that incumbents have regularly prevented true competition from emerging. If it was the Government-owned BSNL that misused its fixed line incumbency to hurt the prospects of broadband in India, then it is the private operators that created and used policy uncertainty to prevent high quality competition in mobile. 

Coming back to the issue of call drops, invariably, every stakeholder complains that the other is to blame.

If indeed blame is to be apportioned, in my opinion, the mobile operators have to take primary responsibility. The TRAI consultation paper shows that operators have not made adequate investments to support the growing traffic. In fact, it has been said that most of the leading mobile operators have spent so much money acquiring spectrum rights that they have none left to build out the networks to effectively use the spectrum. During 2013-14, as per TRAI assessment, operators invested only Rs 9,325 crores in network equipment; in the same year, the industry invested Rs 61,162 crores in spectrum. Between 2012 and 2015, the mobile operators bid Rs 181,656 crores for spectrum, an amount close to the entire network gross block of the industry. This is over and above the Rs 37,000 crore one-time fee that the DoT has demanded from the operators (subject to the outcome of court cases) for holding excess spectrum in the past.

Mobile operators complain that spectrum prices are too high in India. Of course, the government policy of releasing small chunks of scarce spectrum at irregular intervals and setting high reserve prices is faulty. But that has not prevented mobile operators from bidding huge, unviable amounts to corner that spectrum even if it has come at the cost of required investments in network expansion. Indeed, there are now demands that spectrum in 700MHz be released by the government for which there would presumably be a mad rush. Some industry insiders say that the leading operators would rather wait to invest in building networks in the more efficient 700 MHz spectrum than in 1800 and 2100 MHz. Naturally that begs the question why so much money was spent in acquiring the latter spectrum.

There can be no denying that a lot of spectrum in India remains underutilized by the defence and other government bodies. But it is also true that private mobile operators have been extremely inefficient in using the spectrum for which they have paid huge amounts. A recent audit by the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has reportedly  shown that better optimization of the network could result in dramatic improvements in quality of service. It has also been found that operators have set aside spectrum for data capacity expansion at the expense of their voice quality. And then we have the spectacular case of spectrum inefficiency: an operator who acquired 20MHz of pan-India spectrum in 2010 for Rs 12840 crore has not launched services even five years later.

An additional issue that has prevented network roll-out, at least in some cases, is that of permissions for tower infrastructure. Recent push-back amongst municipal authorities in permitting cell-sites in dense urban locations coupled with unnecessary and unscientific scare-mongering about the impact of radiation have added to the problem. The government needs to create certain national guidelines for critical infrastructure like cell-sites and fiber networks. The ambitions of a Digital India cannot be held ransom to by local municipalities, building societies and activists.

 

The suggestion in the TRAI consultation paper that operators should not charge for calls that are dropped is welcome: why should customers pay for a service that they did not receive? Unfortunately, the devil would be in the detail of its implementation. Envisage a scenario of a customer of Operator A calling the customer of Operator B and the call drops in the 50th second of a minute; how is it established which operator dropped the call? Should both operators not charge for that minute, in which case the more efficient operator would lose revenue due to the failure of the other? How do customers keep track of this? TRAI should provide clarification on the mechanisms for not charging and compensating customers for call drops.

The most important action, however, that the DoT and TRAI must take is to examine the real causes for the deterioration of voice networks in India by doing an actual technical audit of all the mobile networks. Instead of being pressured into giving out more spectrum to those who are seeking to corner it, they must ensure effective utilization of spectrum that has already been allocated. If commensurate capital expenditure in network expansion does not follow spectrum acquisition, then a question must be raised about the underlying strategic logic of such investment. Further, the TRAI must study if a few players are blocking effective competition by pricing spectrum out of reach of the others. Do customers really have competitive choice in terms of enough differences in service offerings, quality and prices between various operators? Are call-drops just a symptom of a bigger structural problem in the Indian telecom industry?


(Disclosure: I was associated very closely with the Tata group's telecom business for many years. I continue to remain engaged in advisory services (mostly, teaching/training) with the Tata group telecom companies and other mobile/tech companies.

At home tech primer

(This article first appeared in the Mint on 25 November, 2010 in the Business of Life section.)

 

So you finally decided to create a home office? A home office is not the same as occasionally working from home after work hours or during holidays. You can get by without much ado for the latter; the former requires more planning, technology and facilities. Whether it’s high-speed Internet or admin support on-call, there are many things that we take for granted in an office—a home office will require you to organize all these for yourself. Yes, you do not have your boss watching over your shoulder but neither will you get endless coffee on demand. If you want to be really productive, you need to get your set-up right. Over time, most enterprises will create plug and play “home office” packages to instantly enable their remote workers. Till then, you may need to invest some time and money to create an environment that makes you feel at office in the home.

BASICS FIRST

Find yourself a room or a corner of a room that you can convert into an office. Get yourself a comfortable chair and a work desk. A few filing cabinets and a waste-paper bin would also be nice. Make sure that you have enough electric points nearby, else get a couple of extension strips. A coffee maker, perhaps…

TIP: Check with your employer if they have a policy to support the creation of a home office. Some companies such as BT and P&G provide their remote workers with furniture or other amenities to replicate an office environment at home.

 TELEPHONY

You obviously already have a mobile phone; you should probably get a landline. Mobile phones are not always reliable or convenient when you have to get on to a 2-hour conference call. A landline will also be useful for Internet connectivity (see below). Don’t forget to activate international subscriber dialling (ISD) on your phone—you will need it to dial international toll-free numbers (000-800 numbers) that most conference bridges use.

TIP:If your company uses IP telephony from Cisco, Avaya, etc., ask for a soft-phone application on your computer; this will enable you to replicate your office phone and call your office extensions (using voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP).

BROADBAND

Trust me, get two Broadband connections. Ideally, one of them would be a DSL connection on your landline or a fixed wireless connection (for example, WiMax), with an assured speed of about 1 Mbps and unlimited data usage. In addition, you should get a wireless Internet connection (data-card) that can act as a backup as well as provide you with mobility. Wait for the 3G networks to go live to get more options and possibly better price plans. In any case, Broadband access could cost Rs2,000-3,000 per month—the biggest expense for working from home. However, you cannot work from home if you do not have reliable Internet connectivity.

TIP: Create a local wireless network using a Wi-Fi router; this will provide you some flexibility to move your workplace around and also connect multiple devices to the same Broadband connection.

COMPUTING

You would most likely be using your company-provided laptop as your primary computing device. An external LCD monitor (20 inch or more) would be a useful addition to ease pressure on your eyes; it can also work as a projection screen if you ever have to have a team meeting at home. Similarly, an external mouse and keyboard (preferably wireless/Bluetooth) would make your desk experience more flexible.

You will find that a printer is useful; you may need to print the occasional e-ticket or your monthly expense vouchers or something of that sort. An all-in-one deskjet device (less than Rs5,000) or even a laserjet printer (around Rs10,000) from Hewlett-Packard (HP) or Samsung that prints, copies and scans would meet most typical requirements; most of them can be connected to your Wi-Fi router and operated wirelessly.

TIP: For most document scans, it will work if you just click a picture with a phone-camera and email the photo. If you have an iPhone, there are free apps such as Genius Scan that give you several edit features. You should also keep digital (scan) versions of your photo, passport, ID card, signature, etc., handy—these are very often required at short notice for visas or other official purposes.

SECURITY AND BACKUP

Access to your corporate network, information and resources would mostly be through a virtual private network (VPN) for which you may need an additional password or a token. Make sure that your computer is configured for full remote access and you have IT helpdesk details handy.

You ought to also have your email configured on a mobile device (BlackBerry or any other smartphone) in case your laptop fails to connect for some reason. Many companies create periodic backups of all computers on their network; if not, or in addition, you may want to create a local backup using an external hard drive—do check your company’s IT and data policies before you copy data on to a personal disc.

TIP: Unless your office is nearby or you have an official IT support resource handy, consider investing in a personal desktop or a netbook. This will let you remain connected to your work, even if your office laptop is non-functional for some reason. It would be good to identify an IT troubleshooter in your neighbourhood—usually an IT hardware reseller, a computer engineering student or a geek.

 

SUPER SAVERS

Without these nifty tips, working from home may just become an expensive proposition

• Consider asking your employer to fund purchase of furniture or allow you to use spare stuff from the office. You should also seek reimbursement for your telecom and Internet expenses; remember, you are saving your employer a lot of cost by working from home.

• If you need to make a lot of calls to the US or Europe, sign up for a VoIP service such as Skype, Vonage or Line2, which will give you a local US number on your computer or smartphone to make and receive unlimited calls for a small fee.

• Microsoft and other software providers have special enterprise deals that enable employees to use expensive Office software in their home computers for almost free. Check with your IT department for such offers.

• Don’t let anybody in your neighbourhood know that you have a printer at home. Printers attract urgent printing jobs such as children’s school projects and ‘puja’ manuals that you will be unable to refuse. Remember, printer cartridges, over the lifetime of a printer, can cost three-four times the cost of the printer itself.

Home Alone

(This article first appeared in the Mint on 23rd November, 2010 in the Business of Life section)

"Some day, I will become senior enough to work when I want, where I want.” Or perhaps, “I will retire from the 10-8 routine and work flexible hours.” Telecommuting or working from home is every manager’s dream; achieving work-life balance the ultimate goal. In a survey (Flexible Work Models) conducted in October in Europe, the US, Asia and India by strategy consulting firm, Bain & Co., nearly 86% of next-generation employees said they expect flexibility from their employer. Changes in work practices and technology have made this a reality now. However, working from home is not as easy or attractive as it is made out to be. Through his week-long tweets, we take a peek into the life of a senior executive, who works from home and grapples with multiple “tiny issues”. From what to wear when working from home to can “balance” really be achieved, work-from-home raises several questions. Perhaps there are some lessons to be learnt.

Monday

8.00 AM Wow, the apt complex gym has really changed a lot since I last visited it. via Twitter for BlackBerry

9.20 AM L’s gone to school and the missus to work. Aha, feels great when it takes you 10seconds to reach office. #FTW

10.00 AM Done with overnight email. Disconnecting myself for the next 2 hours. #tata

12.00 PM Finished the Board presentation draft! No tension for the rest of the day.

5.00 PM Gartner publishes latest APAC IT market forecasts; no surprises. http://bit.ly/Grtnr #yam #in

5.15 PM (Yammer) @marketingguru Do you really think so? Aren’t our latest numbers more or less in line with the Gartner sizing estimates? Anyone from Singapore have a point of view?

Plan your day’s schedule, just as you would if you were working from office. Take opportunities to shut yourself from the world for a thinking session or an urgent task.

 

Tuesday

4.22 PM #NoteToSelfWear a shirt even if it is very hot, particularly when you join a web-conference.

9.00 PM Rather embarrassing to be told by Sridhar that he could see me in my vest during Webex meeting. #fail

9.01 PM Don’t know how the webcam turned itself on!! Should stick a post-it on the cam when not in use.

Try to replicate elements of work environment; that includes dressing to work. You never know when you’ll need to jump on to a video chat.

 

Wednesday

9.30 AM At work! Busy day ahead.

1.00 PM Lunch time!! Nothing like ghar ka khana. But I miss the mango milk-shake in the canteen. Trade-offs.

1.45 PM Staying awake post-lunch is always a challenge. Particularly when your bed is a few feet away. Attention!

9.30 PM What a #uberfail evening. How to fire somebody for writing a poor report when ”Pappu Can’t Dance” is blaring in the other room?!

9.31 PM Can’t really blame L; I should have gone to the local office for the team review call. Or get my room sound-proofed.

9.35 PM (Yammer TeamGroup) Guys, sorry for the background sound during today’s meeting. Hope you could hear me clearly.

Create an office space for yourself that is audibly separated from your regular living area. If you cannot spare a room, consider going to the office or using a nearby business centre for important calls or meetings.

 

Thursday

7.00 AM Day trip to Delhi. Waiting for the flight to take off. How I love these early morning flights /sarcasmvia Twitter for BlackBerry

9.20 AM Delhi is hot! Make that very hot. #YetIWearATie via Twitter for BlackBerry

5.00 PM Headed back to the airport. Delhi’s roads seem to be improving but the traffic’s still the same mess. via Twitter for BlackBerry

11.00 PM Just landed; flight late. 21-hour day for a 2 hour meeting — what a waste! I am done with traveling. via Twitter for BlackBerry

Videoconferencing and telepresence are now real substitutes to business travel. Consider creating home infrastructure to support video, or identify a shared facility that you can use.

 

Friday

11.30 AM Sporadic start today; some home repairs underway. Anyway, not much work this AM.

5.00 PM Headed to TP room for monthly leadership meeting. Looking fwd to meeting colleagues from all over the world. Virtually, of course. via Twitter for BlackBerry

9.30 PM Exhausted. TelePresence much more engaging than audio calls. TP at home would be great. Hmm..maybe not. via Twitter for BlackBerry

Working from home offers you the flexibility to take time off for any urgent chores, as long as you are disciplined enough to get your deliverables out on time.

 

Saturday

10.00 AM Saturday is just another day but with fewer e-mails.

1.00 PM STOP. WORKING. NOW.

10.00 PM Ok, so I sneaked in. But I do need to get the Key Imperatives sorted out; it was due on Friday.

A home office can easily become a 24X7 office and defeat its very purpose, if you are not consciously managing your time. A home office does not automatically mean more time with the family.

 

Sunday

11.00 AM Nothing much happening on e-mail, Yammer and Twitter. Is this a long weekend, guys? #yam

11.10 AM (Yammer) D marketingguru Aha! I knew you’d be around :-) Any update on that Gartner report analysis?

11.12 AM (Yammer) D marketingguruThat sounds plausible. Hey, got to go: some birthday party and I am getting those dirty stares! I’ll be in office next week – let’s catch up.

2.15 PM Seriously, where’s everybody this weekend? #yam via Twitter for BlackBerry

It’s not wise to work from home 100% of the time; a 60-40 mix between remote and on-site is advisable. Use enterprise social media tools to stay in touch with what’s happening in the office even when you’re home.

Let Neutrality not lead to Mediocrity

Recently, Thomas K Thomas of Hindu Business Line wrote an article regarding the Net Neutrality issue that is being debated in several countries and was introduced into the Broadband debate in India by Google. While TKT was kind enough to quote my views, there's only so much one can express in a quote. Therefore, this post to elaborate on the quote:

But Indian telecom operators are not in favour of any such regulation.  Srinivasa Addepalli, Senior Vice-President, Corporate Strategy, Tata Communication, says that more than it being a question of principles it is a commercial issue. “It is fair that consumers should have unrestricted access to the Internet. It is also a fact that telecom operators are investing billions of dollars in creating infrastructure. The Internet is at the core of private enterprise today; network operators, like the content/service providers, should be allowed to develop their commercial models without additional regulatory constraints,” Addeppali says.
There was a twist in the Net Neutrality debate in the US with Google and Verizon announcing a joint proposal and with AT&T jumping into the fray with its support of said proposal (or at least one key element of the proposal). Proponents of an open Internet accused Google of a sell-out and Google responded with an analysis of myths and facts related to the proposal. (By the way, I liked this reasonably objective teardown of the Google-Verizon proposal).

Whatever the outcome of the current round of debate on Net Neutrality proposals, I guess there are some key issues that one needs to consider here.

Is the Internet a public good or a private enterprise?
What might have started out in defence and academic circles, is now the primary platform for knowledge, collaboration, commerce, entertainment, and more. On one hand you have the largest encyclopedia in the world that is user-managed and runs on donations, and on the other you also have the most valuable brand in the world, both of which owe their existence to the Internet. The late Dewang Mehta of Nasscom once famously included Internet bandwidth as a fundamental right of all (Indian) citizens and rightly so. But it is not just information or governance that the Internet provides us now and nor is the Internet "free". Content providers and commercial enterprises are free however, to charge their customers (or not) for access to their services as they deem fit. There is no regulation that determines how much a song download should cost or what the pricing of a hosting plan should be. You can sign up for a free, 'lite' version or upgrade to a pricey, 'premium' version. It's a competitive market out there, and a reasonably free market.

Is Internet Access a monopoly or a scarce resource?
In the early days of telecom (30 yrs back in developed markets, 5-15 yrs back in several emerging markets), customers had no choice, whether it was voice services or data connectivity. Regulators were introduced in most of these markets to break incumbent monopolies and encourage competition. Even until a few years ago, customers had very few choices for broadband connectivity, one or two service providers at most in any market. But that has changed. Wireless broadband access has emerged as a reasonable alternative to wireline, particularly in developing markets that have had very poor wireline in any case. Most markets have at least three such providers; extreme cases like India have 6-7 (and growing) wireless operators. Of course, these broadband networks (both wireline and wireless) have failed to keep pace with the exponential growth in Internet traffic demand but that does not reflect scarcity or monopoly behaviour. 

Regulators, I believe, should aim to make themselves redundant. That can only happen by encouraging competition, not just in terms of numbers of players, but also ensuring that each of the players has the requisite resources to be an effective competitor. Regulations should define the minimum acceptable performance levels, for customers and competitors; beyond that, effective competition should take care of creating sufficient customer choice.

Broadband Networks: No longer commodity utilities
For long, telecom networks have been called the pipes, equating them with other utilities like water pipelines and electric wires. Broadband networks, as critical to human existence now as the aforementioned utilities, have features that set them apart from the other pipes. For one, as mentioned earlier, they are no longer primarily provided by local or national government bodies and are not monopolies. In addition, the "content" that flows through them is also varied, competitive and unregulated (unlike water or electricity), The highway example is an interesting one, with several similar characteristics to the broadband network. As one of the industry experts in TKT's article says:

It's like any toll road in the country where every type of vehicle gets to use the expressway but the toll charges vary depending on the type of vehicle.

Everyone can use the roads to travel as they please, however, there are several rules that govern how traffic flows on the roads. There are certain roads (highways or expressways) that place limitations on who (or what type of vehicles) enter the road and charge them in a differential manner. Traffic on these roads is regulated in different ways; certain types of vehicles get priority to use fast lanes and some have to stick to the slower ones. On some roads, the authorities may mandate some capacity to be reserved for public transport by creating special bus or taxi lanes, even if it slows down the rest of the traffic. Finally, in specific circumstances, private roads can be built and the owners determine what they are used for and how. What do we gather from this:

A) Rules of what is allowed and what the charges are should be clear to the users (and to the regulators)

B) Differential treatment to users is permitted. In the light of (A), users can choose what they prefer. (By the way, roads are a near monopoly or maybe duopolies; telecom networks, we have established earlier, are more competitive than roads)

C) Certain capacity of the 'public' infrastructure can be reserved or set aside for critical usage or public interest. 

D) Customers can, in certain circumstances, negotiate and build private infrastructure and use it the way they want.

As a Broadband customer, I would be willing to pay a premium for a network that understood my priority applications and provided a superior performance for such core services, even at the expense of other stuff. For instance, I would surely like to access my enterprise applications (Intranet, Mail, etc.) much faster / better than say, a YouTube video. A doctor providing remote medical assistance would surely want her tele-medicine application to not be choked mid-way through the procedure. On the other hand, a movie junkie (perhaps the doctor, on vacation) would want nothing more than super-fast download of the latest iTunes movie (in HD). Should we let this be left to fate (or best effort, in Internet / telecom parlance)? I say, No. Internet service providers need to make their networks more capable, to discriminate intelligently and individually across different types of content / applications. In a world where our lives are going to revolve around the cloud, networks have to become more than dumb pipes. Intelligent networks will create more value to the customers as well as the content providers. 

Maybe most customers do not want such intelligence. Maybe most content providers do not care about it. But for the few that want the choice, let regulation not take it away and relegate them, in the name of neutrality, to an "average" experience.

I welcome your comments and feedback, particularly because the "Net Neutrality" debate is still not defined well enough in developing markets.

India Spectrum Auctions 101

All you wanted to know about the India 3G & BWA Spectrum Auction process.

What is being auctioned

3G: Three slots of 5MHz spectrum in most circles; 4 slots in a few. That means, in addition to BSNL or MTNL, you will have at least 3 private operators offering 3G services in each circle.

BWA: This is Broadband Wireless Access spectrum... this is spectrum in a different frequency band where a few technologies like WiMax and LTE are available/being developed to offer very high speed data connectivity. 2 slots of 20MHz each are being auctioned. Again, BSNL and MTNL have already been allocated one slot of this spectrum.

Circles and Eligibility Points

India is divided into 22 telecom circles:. 

2 Metros
Mumbai and Delhi (NCR) 
5 Category A Circles
Rest of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat 
9 Category B Circles
Kolkata, Punjab, Kerala, UP (East), UP (West), Haryana, Rajasthan, MP and Rest of West Bengal 
6 Category C Circles
HP, Bihar, Orissa, Assam, North East and J&K

In order to bid in the auction, bidders needed to obtain Eligibility Points. Each Metro and Cat A circle needs 32 points, Cat B 12 points and Cat C 4 points totaling 350 EPs. The EPs were obtained by paying earnest money in proportion to the number of EPs sought; most bidders obtained 350 EPs. The points are fungible across circles, i.e. if you had only 100 points, you could use them to bid for any combination of circles within that limit. Eligibility Points determine how many & which circles a bidder can bid on, at any time.

Bidding

Bidding for all 22 circles happens simultaneously in each "clock round" of bidding. The first round starts at the Reserve Price (Cat A: 320 cr; Cat B: 120 cr; Cat C: 30 cr for 3G..... half of this for BWA). About 4 to 6 rounds of bidding happen daily (based on the last 30 days of bidding.)

In each round, a bidder has to only say Yes or No for each circle at the current round price. 

The price for the next round is determined based on the level of demand (i.e. # of Yes bids) for each circle in the previous round. Excess Demand is calculated as Demand (# of Yes Bids) - Supply (# of Spectrum Slots). If ED is 0 or 1, the price increase is 1%; if ED = 2, 5% and ED>=3, it is 10%. If ED<0, i.e. demand is less than supply, then price does not increase. (Price increments are also capped at Rs 40 cr (20 cr for BWA) in each round.)

The interesting thing is that even if there is no excess demand for a circle in a round, the auction for that circle does not end... it goes on till all the circles have reached a point of no excess demand. So you could have a situation that demand = supply in a circle, but its price increases in the next round because some other circles still have excess demand. This is probably the only "flaw" in the auction design -- of course, it benefits the Seller (the Government in this case).

Activity Ratio

A bidder can bid for only those circles that are within the Eligibility Points that it has at that time. Thus, the EPs associated with all the "Yes" bids of a bidder determine how many bids it can place in the subsequent round. In the initial rounds, however, this is relaxed and a bidder can retain its EPs, if it bids at or above the specified Activity Level. So, the auction starts at 80% level, i.e. a bid equivalent to 280 points (80% of 350) retains the bidders 350 points in the next round. The Activity Ratio is increased by the Auctioneer to 90% at a later stage and then to 100%. At 100%, bidders have to bid (i.e. choose Yes) in order to retain the associated EPs. Unless they are a Provisional Winner in that circle. 

What! More complexity! 

During each round, the Auctioneer declares (based on pre-set rules) a number of Provisional Winners (equal to the number of slots). Being a Provisional Winner does not automatically guarantee the circle to a bidder; the primary benefit is that a Provisional Winner is deemed to have bid for the next round and can therefore retain Eligibility Points even when it chooses "No" for that circle. The Provisional Winner concept can be used by the bidders to "reduce" the demand level and consequently, the price increment in that round.

The End

The auction comes to an end when two conditions are met:
1. Activity Ratio is 100%
2. Excess Demand is 0 or less in all circles simultaneously

The Government has said that winners in the 3G auction will be allocated spectrum in September 2010. Based on that schedule, we can expect that services should be available in a few major markets in early 2011. The BWA spectrum is likely to be allocated immediately to the two winners; depending on their technology choices, wireless broadband services could be available towards the end of 2010.

(Note: I have tried to keep this quite simple and have not gone into all the details/complexities of the auction design. For those interested in the painful details, I am happy to answer your questions.)

2009: Sad Year for Indian Telecom; 2010: Unlikely to be better

I spent the entire Oh-Ohs (00's) decade working on telecom. NTP '99 heralded the real opening up of the Indian telecom sector and every spare hand was diverted to telecom... and boy, has it been an exciting ride! More than 500million subscribers were added during this period; we have seen tariffs hit all-time lows; 8 new submarine cables connected India to the rest of the world... the achievements are endless to recount here.

However, I am saddened by the manner this decade ended. 2009 has to count as the year that promised so much but delivered almost nothing. The most talked about disappointment, of course, was the postponement of the 3G & BWA spectrum auctions. What is more disconcerting was that major decisions that would have created true customer choice - Number Portability, MVNO and Internet Telephony - were put off, on some pretext or the other. Even the one decision (this year) on Calling Cards could not be implemented because the terms and procedures are yet to be finalized.


Most people are happy about the entry of new (mobile) operators and consequent reduction in tariffs. I am not so sure, though. Adding new (facilities-based) players to a reasonably crowded market is not necessarily in the best interest of the industry or the customers. While it does result in some short-term pricing benefits, the common resource used by all of them is scarce spectrum -- the more fragmented it gets, poorer the quality of service. So while we have so-called lowest tariffs, we also have poor service levels. Instead, the Government had the opportunity to introduce new forms of competition (& customer choice) through MVNO and Internet Telephony, but dragged its feet on those decisions.

Telecom policy-making was at its worst this year, with no clarity on who was responsible and in what direction we were headed. What we needed was an NTP 2009; what we got was EGoM meetings and TRAI consultation papers.


2009 saw Bharti losing out an opportunity to become a global leader in the mobile business; in fact, none of the Indian companies could capitalize on the recession (& low valuations) in developed markets to make any large, bold moves/acquisitions. Intense tariff pressures in the domestic market dented their valuations - most analysts reacted with a Sell on the Indian telecom sector, probably for the first time in the last 5-8 years.


Will 2010 be different? I do not see much cause for cheer: the fundamental problem around policy-making is not likely to go away in a hurry. 3G & BWA auctions might happen in early 2010 (only because the Government is counting on the auction money in this financial year!), but networks/services would be available only towards the end of the year, in a limited manner. The camps on both sides of MNP, MVNO and Internet Telephony are strong and therefore, I expect status quo will prevail - for all practical purposes.


It will feel good to be proven wrong.

10 years after NTP 99

As I drive on the highway between Bangalore and Mysore two things strike me. I have not lost voice and data connectivity for even a minute since I left Bangalore airport. And every few minutes I can notice a hoarding, banner or display of one or the other telecom brand. In a country where it can take twenty years to build a bridge, the development in the telecom sector is tremendous. Yes, there are still many things that are not correct and the future maybe uncertain but the change it has created - at the grassroots level - should not be under-estimated. 300 million people (at least) are connected in a way they have never been in this country. The freedom movement is the only other thing that comes to mind. Critical observers will say that this happened in spite of the Government, and they would probably be almost correct. The only credit that I would give is for NTP 99 which really opened up the market; that was the first and last pro-active and coordinated policy work.

It is tempting to say that the next decade will be more exciting than the previous one. I really hope that it's true, for the sake of the 800 million others that are waiting to be connected.

I want a landline!!

It's been over four months since I moved to Pune, and I have been trying hard to get a fixed phone at home. Only recently, I actually managed to submit an application form for a landline connection. Now the long wait for the connection to be provided begins...

 I have 5 wireless connections at home, yet I am desperate for a landline. Surprising...?

 1. My mobile phones are quite erratic. I can use them for short, informal conversations where interruptions don't matter. But if I have to be on a 3-hour long conference call without having to endure frequent call-drops or poor quality, Hello Hello Can you hear me.., there is no alternative to a fixed line phone.

 2. I have a decent quality wireless broadband connection that gets me 1Mbps to my home. But I cannot get more even if I am willing to pay for it. And I cannot get voice on it, although it would just need 64kbps of capacity. Regulation is to blame for both: there isn't enough spectrum available to offer higher (dedicated) speeds on the wireless network. And the broadband connection comes from an ISP licensee that is not permitted to offer voice.

 3. Fixed phones are shared connections, meant for the home. My children who don't yet have mobile phones (and won't for the near future, if I can help it) need a phone at home if the parents are away. The home security system needs to be connected to a good quality phone line for it to provide remote monitoring / control features.

 India, and many other emerging markets, have chosen to go the wireless way for increasing tele-density. It was a good starting point for connecting the millions of unconnected. Now those millions having tasted the benefits of connectivity are bound to demand more... increasingly data and high speed at that. In the absence of adequate spectrum (that is usually fragmented between defence, space and satellite programs) and without any investments in fixed last mile networks, India and other markets in Asia/Africa will soon face a major broadband disadvantage.

 The digital divide between the developed countries that have been investing in fiber-to-home networks and the emerging markets that have placed their bets only on wireless is bound to increase. What that will do to the "knowledge" and "services" economy positioning of these emerging markets is to be seen.